Of vaccine shortages and government-run health care

If the federal government effectively takes over the United States health care system, how well will it run it? The current shortage of the H1N1 flu vaccine at a critical time may provide a clue. The issue, however, is complicated.

Vaccines are privately manufactured. But government's role as a major buyer of vaccines has increased dramatically, starting with the Vaccines for Children Program (VFC) in 1994. By 2002, VFC purchases alone were 41% of the total vaccine market, with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and state and local governments accounting for an additional 16%. (These figures are from an article by the National Center for Policy Analysis.) Members of the Clinton administration boasted at the time that the VFC was a dress rehearsal for Hillarycare. Since the federal government is now the single largest purchaser of vaccines in this country, it effectively controls the market.

Whether or not caused by government policies, there is a critical shortage of vaccine for the flu caused by the H1N1 virus. A study published on October 15 in Eurosurveillance and reported by the Washington Times predicts that almost two thirds of the population will become infected with the virus (though not necessarily exhibit symptoms) before the vaccine becomes widely available. The study was conducted by professors of Purdue University's statistics and mathematics departments. Canada, which already has the single-payer health system that Obama espouses, is in even more dire straits, because of their government's slowness to approve the vaccine.

Does this mean that the federal government will make a hash of our health care system? No, but it hardly inspires confidence.