Wednesday, July 30, 2008

"I'm trying to save the planet. I'm trying to save the planet."



Well, that's a relief. But frankly, I'd feel a lot better if Nancy Pelosi would allow a vote on the "trivial" issue of permitting drilling on the outer continental land shelf and other federal lands. The current high oil and gas prices, in the main, are the result of the current supply/demand imbalance. And traders in the futures market have been bidding those prices higher, because they expect that imbalance to get even worse in the future (although oil prices came down after Bush rescinded the presidential order forbidding oil exploration on the outer continental land shelf).

The point is that we can do little or nothing to affect the burgeoning demand for oil and gas in other parts of the world. Developing countries aren't going to stop growing on our account. We can, however, improve the supply side of the equation.

As for saving the planet, again, the biggest increases in the production of CO2 and other "greenhouse gases" are occurring in those same developing countries (no surprise there). If oil prices get high enough, the resulting world economic slowdown might cause world demand to slacken. But that "solution" would be both painful and temporary.

By all means, let us strive to increase efficiency and develop alternative energy sources. But we also need to increase domestic oil and gas production. Saving the planet is a longer-term project.

Sunday, July 13, 2008

Global Warming redux from Powerlineblog


The Arctic, getting warmer:

“The Arctic ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot,” according to a report to the Commerce Department yesterday from US Consul Ifft, at Bergen, Norway. Reports from fishermen, seal hunters and explorers, he declared, all point to a radical change in climate conditions and hitherto unheard-of temperatures in the Arctic zone.

“Exploration expeditions report that scarcely any ice has been met with as far north as 81 degrees 29 minutes. Soundings to a depth of 3,100 meters showed the gulf stream still very warm. Great masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones, the report continued, while at many points well-known glaciers have entirely disappeared. Very few seals and no white fish are found in the eastern Arctic, while vast shoals of herring and smelts, which have never before ventured so far north, are being encountered in the old seal fishing grounds.”

This morning's New York Times? No, the U.S. Weather Bureau, 1922.

Thursday, July 10, 2008

Wind Power Redux




A report on the limitations of wind power in the United Kingdom and Europe was published in The Register last week here.

The report is discouraging. It concludes that the vagaries of wind in the UK and Europe are such that wind farms may effectively need to be structured as supplements to conventionally-powered electrical plants(gas-fired, because of the need for rapid startups). The necessary duplication makes such a system very expensive. Additionally, frequently starting up and shutting down gas-fired turbines causes excessive wear.

I take no joy from reporting this. I wish that all forms of alternative energy, especially wind and solar, were more practical. But denial is not the answer.

Tuesday, July 8, 2008

Obama and the Chicago gun ban




Has anyone in the MSM asked Obama whether he believes Chicago's ban on guns is constitutional? If they have, I haven't seen it.

While the constitutionality of the District of Columbia's ban on handguns was pending before the United States Supreme Court, Obama expressed at least three different positions on the issue. At one point he said he supported DC's gun ban. Then he said that he hadn't listened to the briefs, so he didn't have an informed opinion (I read a number of the briefs in the case on the Internet, but I didn't find any in audio format). After the Supreme Court affirmed the holding of the DC Court of Appeals that the ban was unconstitutional, Obama stated that he agreed with the majority opinion. Take your pick.

Constitutional challenges to Chicago's gun ban have now been filed. Obama has lived in Chicago for over two decades, so he has to be familiar with its gun laws. And, of course, Obama claims to be a constitutional law scholar. He presumably has some opinion whether Chicago's ban violates the Second Amendment. Someone should ask him what it is.

Energy myths explored




Investors Business Daily here explores a number of energy myths in a recent editorial. Can we drill our way out of "this situation"? That depends on what "this situation" means. I don't believe that we can drill for and produce sufficient amounts of oil to meet all of our current and future needs. So we will still need to rely to some extent on "unreliable sources of oil from abroad," as Bob Hope used to say in the Texaco commercials.

But can increased domestic drilling significantly alleviate the current oil supply/demand imbalance? Absolutely. Demand for oil is increasing fastest in other parts of the world -- the Middle East, the Far East, India, and some parts of Latin America. These increases in demand are beyond our control. People in other parts of the world are not going to forego higher standards of living because they raise the worldwide price of oil and gas. Consequently, even if we aggressively pursue conservation measures in this country, world demand for oil will continue to expand.

We can, however, improve the supply-side of the equation by increasing domestic production. Yes there will be lag time before future production comes on line. But the prospect of increased future supplies can have an immediate impact on prices in the futures market (those dastardly speculators). Our only alternative is to continue to watch domestic production decline while world demand increases. Not a pleasant prospect.

Mexico's oil production continues to decline.



A three paragraph article in today's Houston Chronicle reports that Pemex has had to reduce the amount of crude oil it supplies to Texas refineries, because output at its Cantarell Field fell to an almost 12-year low in May. Cantarell is the world's third-largest oil field.

The oil reserves that Pemex is counting on to replace Cantarell's declining production are located in the deep waters in the Gulf of Mexico. Pemex is just beginning to develop these new reserves. In fact, Mexico's major political parties are still squabbling over whether to allow Pemex to contract with foreign oil field service companies to assist in developing these reserves. Don't count on any significant production coming online from these fields anytime soon. This does not bode well for the world's future supply of oil.